Control
Nothing fires without you
Read-only and paper-first out of the box. Live placement sits behind a kill switch you have to reach for. Polymarket execution does not exist here at all.
off by default
ConnectingCoinbase
BTC——
ETH——
SOL——
XRP——
Public exchange feed
A quant’s
eagle-eye view.
Prediction-market quantitative analytics for Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Coinbase.
Your own quantitative analyst, resident on your Mac. Crypto strikes priced from a drift and volatility fit to stored minute candles, weather markets shown next to the airport observation that settles them, every candidate charged the venue's own fee formula before you read a number.
eagL for Apple Silicon
M-series only$499one-time payment
- Updates included
- 12 months
- Subscription
- None
Cards, Link, PayPal and Amazon Pay are at checkout too
- 1Pay
- 2Download
- 3Running in a minute
Instant downloadYours foreverNo renewal
Requires an Apple Silicon Mac on macOS 11 or later. All sales final.
eagL / labs / crypto
Fees come out firstevery number is net of that venue's own schedule
Both legs, provenreplayed 30 minutes forward before it counts
Tested on data it never sawyou see how far the edge decays, not the best run
Nothing leaves your Macno account, no upload
Recorded in the app
The execution
deck.
Two screen recordings of the shipping build reading live venue data. Nothing here is staged or mocked up.
ScanPriceFalsifyRecord
eagL / labs / weather
The observation that settles the contract.
Weather markets pay out on airport observations, not forecasts. METAR and TAF sit beside a three-to-one NWS and Open-Meteo blend, and where those two models disagree the forecast is marked low confidence instead of averaged quietly.
Watch the age counters. Stale data is labelled, not hidden.
25 cities · METAR + TAF
Custody
Your keys never leave the Mac
Venue credentials live in your keychain and speak to a sidecar over loopback. There is no eagL account, so there is nothing of yours for anyone to lose.
loopback only
Record
Every rejection is kept
Paper fills, diagnostics, discarded candidates and validation runs go to disk and stay there. Six months from now you can still ask why, and get an answer.
no upload · no scoring
Pricing
The price you see is the price you'd get
Most tools price a trade at the best quote on screen. eagL walks the whole order book, charges the venue's real fees at your actual fill price, and takes every cost out before a number reaches you. A trade that only works before fees never gets to look like an opportunity. It shows up as a rejection, with the math attached.
VWAP · size · venue cost
Delivery
Buy it, own it, run it on a plane
A signed licence file the app checks by itself. Nothing to create an account for, nothing to call home to, nothing that can be switched off from elsewhere.
Ed25519 · offline
Measured, not claimed
Market pulse.
Four numbers the app produces on your Mac. All four are visible in the recordings above.
4 venues
One overview, four books
Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Coinbase read side by side. Titles are paired by IDF-weighted overlap, and a pair whose strike numbers disagree is thrown out before it can be priced.
Cross-venue surface
8 levels / side
Sized against the real book
Microprice, depth imbalance and spread in bps come off the top eight levels. Size is then solved by walking those levels until the next contract stops paying.
Executable size
240 candles
The history the model is fit on
Each asset and timeframe keeps its own candles on disk. Per-minute drift and EWMA variance are estimated from them, and the same store is what replay is later checked against.
Local evidence
25 cities
Straight from what settles it
METAR and TAF from the airports these contracts settle on. NWS and Open-Meteo are blended three to one, and where the two models disagree the forecast is marked low confidence rather than averaged quietly.
Weather contracts
Why traders keep it open
The signal engine room.
Most tools compete on how many alerts they can send you. eagL competes on how many bad trades it stops you from taking. Every candidate has to clear real depth, real fees and a two-leg replay before it reaches your screen.
Decision receipt
Cross-venue contractCandidateYES / NO pair
Illustrative
- Headline spread
- +4.20%
- Reachable depth
- 37 contracts
- Entry + settlement
- −5.08%
- Executable edge
- −0.88%
Reject
Apparent edge does not survive fees.eagL / local evidence14:32:18.004
Headline cross-venue spread
Depth, entry, and settlement
Reject / edge does not survive
Executable pricing
Priced against real depth, not the screen.
eagL walks the book level by level, charges the fee at your real fill price instead of the screen price, and grows the size until the next contract stops paying. Kalshi pays its own schedule rounded up to the cent, PredictIt its cut of profit at settlement, Coinbase 120 bps taker.
Depth · size · venue fee
Forecast models
Makes its own forecasts, then grades them.
eagL prices every crypto strike itself, from a drift and volatility fit to stored minute candles under geometric Brownian motion, the same machinery an options desk runs. Past two hours it drops drift entirely, because at that horizon drift is noise. When markets settle it grades every forecast with Brier score, log loss and a calibration curve, so you can see whether the model earns its keep.
GBM · Brier · calibration
Reachability replay
Proves both legs were actually fillable.
A cross-venue trade needs both sides to fill, so eagL replays its stored quotes thirty minutes forward from the moment of detection, aligning the two venues only where their samples land within sixty seconds. The pair counts as takeable only if it still cleared costs thirty seconds later. Quote history is top of book, so this proves the price held, not the size.
Two-leg evidence
Held-out validation
Validated on data it never trained on.
The split is chronological, never random. eagL tunes its parameters on the early window, touches the held-out window exactly once, then shows you both numbers and the drop between them. The sweep is capped, because past a few hundred combinations the winner is luck, not skill.
In-sample · out-of-sample · drop
Evidence gates
No statistics from thin samples.
Before eagL will publish a statistic it wants 100 detections, 500 quote frames, 50 paper fills, 100 settled outcomes and seven days of watching. Below any of those floors it throws the figure away rather than printing it with a footnote.
Minimum sample · minimum window
Refusals
Never guesses at liquidity.
A market with no order book gets priced from one assumed level and labeled as assumed. Play-money venues get dropped before matching. Live orders are limit only, and the risk gate checks the emergency stop before anything else.
Flagged · dropped · gated
No surprises
The transparency log.
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- PredictIt
- Coinbase
- NWS
- Open-Meteo
- METAR
- TAF
- Ed25519
- macOS Keychain
- Apple Silicon
- Platform
- Requires an Apple Silicon Mac on macOS 11 or later. Compiled for that silicon alone and never ported to Windows, Linux or Intel.
- Delivery
- A versioned .dmg, the moment the payment clears.
- Activation
- An Ed25519-signed licence file your Mac checks by itself. No account, no phone-home.
- Venues
- Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Coinbase. Your accounts, your keys.
- Crypto model
- Geometric Brownian motion fit to stored minute candles: per-minute drift, EWMA variance on a twenty-period half-life, strike brackets read off the lognormal. Every interval is Brier scored once it resolves.
- Weather terminal
- METAR and TAF from the 25 US city airports these contracts settle on, with NWS and Open-Meteo blended three to one and disagreement between them setting the confidence band. It reads the settlement data. It does not price the contract.
- Microstructure
- Microprice, depth imbalance, queue imbalance, liquidity elasticity and spread in basis points, over the top eight levels a side.
- Credentials
- The macOS keychain, and nowhere else. They never cross the network.
- Execution
- Read-only and paper-first. Live placement ships off behind a kill switch. Live Polymarket orders, never.
- Licence
- $499 once, and the build is yours permanently. 12 months of updates on top. No subscription, no renewal, and no expiry on the licence itself.
- Sales
- Final. You get everything the moment you pay. If a download fails or a charge duplicates, eaglapp@proton.me fixes it.
Pay once, own it
$499
USD, paid one time. There is no second invoice.
Perpetual licence
Bought once. Yours for good.
The version you buy is yours the day you buy it and every day after it. Nothing expires, nothing renews, and there is no server anywhere that can switch it off.
Ed25519 signed · verified offline · no account
Analytics software, with no profit promise. All sales final. Licence and sales terms
Apple Silicon required
The whole desk, owned outright.
- ✓The whole macOS application
- ✓Owned, not rented
- ✓Twelve months of updates
- ✓Activates offline, no account
- ✓Keys stay in your keychain
- ✓Nothing renews, ever
One payment, one tapApple Pay, Google Pay, Link, cards, PayPal and Amazon Pay, wherever your device and country allow them. No installments, no subscription.
Stripe-securedImmediate deliveryYours permanently
Ask first
The risk compass.
What it does, what it refuses to do, and what happens to your money. Read this before you spend $499, not after.
Which markets does it actually cover?
Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Coinbase in one window. Crypto is the part with a model behind it: strikes are priced from a drift and volatility fit to stored minute candles, across 11 assets and 14 Kalshi series. Weather is a settlement-data terminal rather than a pricing engine, and it is deliberately the smaller claim: METAR and TAF from the 25 airports those contracts settle on, NWS and Open-Meteo blended behind them, every reading stamped with its age. Everything else on the board is still scanned and still charged depth and fees, it just has no bespoke model attached.
What is under the hood?
Geometric Brownian motion for crypto strikes and brackets, with drift and EWMA variance estimated off stored minute bars, and resolved outcomes scored by Brier, log loss and a ten-bin calibration curve. Microprice, depth imbalance, queue imbalance and liquidity elasticity across the top of book. A size solver that walks the ladder, with each venue's own maker-taker schedule charged on the fill VWAP. IDF-weighted title matching behind a numeric gate, so a $100k strike never pairs with a $150k one. Backtests held to a chronological 60/40 holdout, so you see how much they degrade on data they never touched. None of it sits behind a tier.
Will this make me money?
No. Anything that answers yes is selling you something. eagL is a decision tool. A correct scan usually ends with the edge dying at the fee line, or never being reachable at a size worth the trouble.
Can it trade without me?
Not unless you switch it on yourself. The build is read-only and paper-first, live placement sits behind a kill switch, and Polymarket execution does not exist here at all.
What does $499 actually buy?
The application outright, plus every update for twelve months. Outright means what it says: the licence does not lapse when the update window closes. There is no higher tier holding anything back, no seat to renew, and no server that has to agree you still own it. When the twelve months end, the build on your Mac keeps working exactly as it did that morning.
Will it run on my machine?
Only on an Apple Silicon Mac running macOS 11 or later. eagL is built for that chip and left there deliberately: one target means the order book, the model and the interface are tuned against known silicon rather than the slowest machine that might run them. Windows, Linux and Intel Macs are not supported and are not planned. Better you read that now than after paying.
Where do my API keys end up?
Your macOS keychain. The sidecar talks to them over loopback. There is no eagL server anywhere holding a credential that could move your funds.
What happens the second I pay?
The download and your signed activation file arrive immediately. No queue, no email confirmation to wait on. The wallet button is Stripe's own, so Apple Pay appears when your device really has it and quietly does not when it does not.
eagL / macOS
$499 once. Running on your Mac in minutes.